I checked it out... and it looks like it's been nailed a few times over. Personally, I think EuroTrip looks funny. Like an American Pie type of flick... it's getting good reviews... the USD 13 million or more +300 looks pretty nice now with 3/1 odds attached. What if all the teens come out?
Not sure about MoosePort... Everyone Loves Raymond has a lot of fans. +130 maybe
This shits very tempting with these kind of odds.
Not sure about MoosePort... Everyone Loves Raymond has a lot of fans. +130 maybe
This shits very tempting with these kind of odds.
Ko, Raymond indeed has millions of loyal fans, but, that doesn't necessarily translate to box-office success. Look at "from Justin to Kelly," albeit a film that had a far better chance of tanking. I kinda feel that this movie looks too corny to draw out enough of the older crowd, which it is targetted for, to be a success. It could very well do 7 million, but, like you said, the odds are too tempting for me to pass up, especially seeing movies like The Big Bounce bringing in 4 million recently. Eurotrip does look funny, but, theres something about the trailer that gives me the impression that it isn't going to draw a huge interest from the highschool crowd. For one, maybe I'm wrong, but who are these actors? Aren't they all no-names? They certainly don't have the charisma of the American Pie or Road Trip cast. It should probably go over 6 million as well, I guess, especially now with the good reviews coming in, but, I love the +650 since my personal opinion is its probably going to be somewhat of a dissapointment box-office-wise. Moveifone has sort of been useless as of late, but, neither of these films is even on the chart as of Thursday night, never a good sign...
Nice write up. The only reason I like EuroTrip for the Over is the 4/1 odds. Sure the cast is unknown, but wasn't the cast for American Pie unknown when the first one debut in 1999? And that pulled in 18 + million. That was over 5 years ago. It would be 20 + million today, and back then they were a bunch on nobodies... but the concept sold the movie. Supposley this movie is damn filthy, sex, nudity... lots of pussy... lol... so that usually brings out the teens. I'm just saying... for 4-1 odds... you never know. Over 13 million could happen. It's a good value play. (but I'm not an expert)
Well if you think the movie's gonna do well certainly 4/1 odds for over 13 has value.... Especially when it's getting good reviews. Personally it doesn't look like an American Pie calibur release to me, it looks like more of a copycat than anything, even look at the typeface on the posters, its the same style as American Pie. They're obviously going after the American Pie fans... I would also be concerned that it hasn't shown up on the Moviefone chart yet, a chart that predicted Scary Movie 3's huge opening, another teen film, by it's debut at #1 on the Monday before release. Lately it's been even less reliable than ever, though. Welcome to Mooseport has shown up at #10, there will probably be another update later tonight as well.
don't know what to think of these, would prefer less than 50 people in the afternoon but still, not bad I guess.
Theater reports:
Oak Tree Theater
Seattle, WA
12:15 showing
Popcorn and Diet Coke
Second film in a row there with no trailers (grrrrrr)
300 seat theater, perhaps 50 people there.
From the moment they set up the film with the amazingly catchy "Scotty Doesn't Know" song, I was hooked. This was the best teen sex romp I've seen since "Not Another Teen Movie," which is probably the most pleasurable of all my movie guilty pleasures. The film didn't have an ounce of intelligence to it, which was perfect. It was simply flat out funny, and anyone who can stand a nude beach scene that ends as if it were the bizarro world version of the execution in "The Meaning of Life," and if you can stomach jokes about sex with horses or Italians on a train, it's about 90 minutes of mindless fun. I laughed a lot at this film, as did everyone in the theater. Go see it--you won't be disappointed.
Interesting note: the last time I went to this theater was for MRACL's open. At that time, they were not going to play PASON. That has changed now. Due to demand, they said that they were indeed now one of the additional 800 theaters that were playing PASON, and they had booked two pre-opening shows, one for Thursday and one for Friday, for local churches. They have said demand is pretty high, and more people have been asking for showtimes for it than for any movie ever there, according to the manager. She's not convinced, however, that these weren't people looking for times so they could come protest, and she doesn't care, but she said they definitely were feeling the buzz, and Loews had asked them to take it on because they wanted to ensure enough capacity in their Seattle theaters.
As for the opening films, she didn't think any of them would do very well, although they have COTDQ and MOOSE in the two largest theaters there.
Anyway--good luck, and go see EUROT if you just want a stupid good time.
----------------------------------------------
First matinee, 10 people, almost all of them guys in their twenties, in a 600-seat theater. No reaction to any of the trailers.
Anchorman
Dawn of the Dead (actually looks good)
Girl Next Door
Mean Girls
Starsky & Hutch
Envy
I've now had the misfortune of watching Ben Stiller shoot a horse in two consecutive trailers.
Eurotrip was high on my list for months, until the trailers started coming out, each one worse than the one before. So I was pleasantly surprised when the movie was really funny and most of the ten people were laughing. For the first half hour. Then it imploded (with the dreadfully unfunny scuzé scene) and got worse by the minute. Nobody laughed for the last hour.
I'm still long. There's no accounting for bad taste.
Theater reports:
Oak Tree Theater
Seattle, WA
12:15 showing
Popcorn and Diet Coke
Second film in a row there with no trailers (grrrrrr)
300 seat theater, perhaps 50 people there.
From the moment they set up the film with the amazingly catchy "Scotty Doesn't Know" song, I was hooked. This was the best teen sex romp I've seen since "Not Another Teen Movie," which is probably the most pleasurable of all my movie guilty pleasures. The film didn't have an ounce of intelligence to it, which was perfect. It was simply flat out funny, and anyone who can stand a nude beach scene that ends as if it were the bizarro world version of the execution in "The Meaning of Life," and if you can stomach jokes about sex with horses or Italians on a train, it's about 90 minutes of mindless fun. I laughed a lot at this film, as did everyone in the theater. Go see it--you won't be disappointed.
Interesting note: the last time I went to this theater was for MRACL's open. At that time, they were not going to play PASON. That has changed now. Due to demand, they said that they were indeed now one of the additional 800 theaters that were playing PASON, and they had booked two pre-opening shows, one for Thursday and one for Friday, for local churches. They have said demand is pretty high, and more people have been asking for showtimes for it than for any movie ever there, according to the manager. She's not convinced, however, that these weren't people looking for times so they could come protest, and she doesn't care, but she said they definitely were feeling the buzz, and Loews had asked them to take it on because they wanted to ensure enough capacity in their Seattle theaters.
As for the opening films, she didn't think any of them would do very well, although they have COTDQ and MOOSE in the two largest theaters there.
Anyway--good luck, and go see EUROT if you just want a stupid good time.
----------------------------------------------
First matinee, 10 people, almost all of them guys in their twenties, in a 600-seat theater. No reaction to any of the trailers.
Anchorman
Dawn of the Dead (actually looks good)
Girl Next Door
Mean Girls
Starsky & Hutch
Envy
I've now had the misfortune of watching Ben Stiller shoot a horse in two consecutive trailers.
Eurotrip was high on my list for months, until the trailers started coming out, each one worse than the one before. So I was pleasantly surprised when the movie was really funny and most of the ten people were laughing. For the first half hour. Then it imploded (with the dreadfully unfunny scuzé scene) and got worse by the minute. Nobody laughed for the last hour.
I'm still long. There's no accounting for bad taste.
Shuuuut uuuup.
You never take part in discussions, you just throw cheap shots. I know I ain't the greatest box office handicapper, but it's a tough thing to call. And hey, that baby almost went under... how can you say it wasn't a good play? It could still go UNDER. (i don't want to start a fight... but negativity isn't needed.)
You never take part in discussions, you just throw cheap shots. I know I ain't the greatest box office handicapper, but it's a tough thing to call. And hey, that baby almost went under... how can you say it wasn't a good play? It could still go UNDER. (i don't want to start a fight... but negativity isn't needed.)
Gil,
I know I come off as an ass toward you, and I'm sorry - but you basically throw money away. It just makes no sense to me.
Look - I totally lost my ass when the books started offering these lines. I think I ate about $1500 at WSEX in December of '02. I'm 99% certain that the linesmakers have access to the tracking from the studios. Most of these are decided by the hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions. It just seems like more luck than anything else in most cases.
"And hey, that baby almost went under... how can you say it wasn't a good play? It could still go UNDER. (i don't want to start a fight... but negativity isn't needed.)"
It's a loser, so no, it's not a good play. Too many bets are decided by a hair for something close to be considered "good."
Really, I can appreciate the people who do well here: I remember Lakerfan acing these plays awhile back. I don't see him around very often anymore. I just think the difficulty level is too severe for it to work all that well.
I know I come off as an ass toward you, and I'm sorry - but you basically throw money away. It just makes no sense to me.
Look - I totally lost my ass when the books started offering these lines. I think I ate about $1500 at WSEX in December of '02. I'm 99% certain that the linesmakers have access to the tracking from the studios. Most of these are decided by the hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions. It just seems like more luck than anything else in most cases.
"And hey, that baby almost went under... how can you say it wasn't a good play? It could still go UNDER. (i don't want to start a fight... but negativity isn't needed.)"
It's a loser, so no, it's not a good play. Too many bets are decided by a hair for something close to be considered "good."
Really, I can appreciate the people who do well here: I remember Lakerfan acing these plays awhile back. I don't see him around very often anymore. I just think the difficulty level is too severe for it to work all that well.
heheh.... I haven't been keeping track but... I don't think I've been doing that bad betting on these movie props. I got killed last summer but think I've learned from some of those mistakes, and, I have hit one or two of these movie props with long odds. If a movie is gonna tank, there's sometimes good odds out there you can snatch up. Bo-dog took it in the pants offering these odds, unfortunately, and doesn't offer them anymore. I remember JCamberts 10-1 play on Dumb and Dumberer going under 10 million which some of us cashed on, including me. I haven't been too bad at predicting box office failures either. And hey, it's not over yet, they could have over-estimated this puppy by 700,000 dollars! lol.. Alos, if Intertops hadn't offered this prop I would have taken the under 10 million at Wsex, which didn't turn out to be all that sharp of a number. The lines do often end up being within the 100's of thousands, but how often is that? Not even 50%?
Here's my record to date:
0-2 -4 units
Think I already know what my play for Starsky and Hutch is gonna be.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 22, 2004 at 09:20 PM.]
Here's my record to date:
0-2 -4 units
Think I already know what my play for Starsky and Hutch is gonna be.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 22, 2004 at 09:20 PM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> It's a loser, so no, it's not a good play. Too many bets are decided by a hair for something close to be considered "good."
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Any actual handicapper knows that the above statement couldn't be further from the truth.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Any actual handicapper knows that the above statement couldn't be further from the truth.
